Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 22.924256 24.954070 27.149430 29.712012 32.636066 35.886432 39.797756
2025-11-23 19.503675 22.233794 25.394156 29.368402 34.298658 40.304991 48.322256
2025-11-30 17.189288 20.276405 24.037909 29.052707 35.714689 44.495955 57.378175
2025-12-07 15.545783 18.835082 23.009628 28.848356 37.069716 48.690084 67.309376
2025-12-14 14.206386 17.581120 22.006399 28.444757 37.968847 52.282677 77.161912
2025-12-21 13.641240 17.251291 22.147699 29.574807 41.167168 59.837982 95.576235
2025-12-28 12.782823 16.424532 21.489003 29.417255 42.318442 64.285943 109.903558
2026-01-04 12.092080 15.760851 20.980191 29.392541 43.631113 69.224688 126.971088
2026-01-11 11.603825 15.337777 20.770283 29.786059 45.674567 75.915674 150.726923
2026-01-18 11.051856 14.775037 20.291974 29.672611 46.778503 81.000448 173.092480
2026-01-25 10.517536 14.198573 19.740074 29.364669 47.457730 85.341975 195.834481
2026-02-01 10.086361 13.747290 19.345151 29.275671 48.528805 90.797493 225.366287
2026-02-08 9.642083 13.255021 18.857804 28.991009 49.207477 95.635828 256.947118
2026-02-15 9.222752 12.777633 18.361560 28.642016 49.708392 100.220048 291.815250
2026-02-22 8.846184 12.346005 17.910510 28.330730 50.243766 105.078128 332.949224
2026-03-01 8.520698 11.977295 17.538979 28.130992 50.993526 110.776944 385.076152
2026-03-08 8.187684 11.578985 17.090978 27.740646 51.252170 115.173673 436.828216
2026-03-15 8.124308 11.612722 17.385102 28.830057 55.160395 132.188574 599.707249
2026-03-22 7.867535 11.314665 17.077881 28.677989 56.024892 139.693794 715.009690
2026-03-29 7.647536 11.066864 16.844115 28.654095 57.214121 148.884939 876.487204
2026-04-05 7.499892 10.932714 16.805229 29.033452 59.529336 163.425956 1166.107595
2026-04-12 7.292836 10.688059 16.549707 28.924076 60.510343 173.223430 1459.286721
2026-04-19 7.072957 10.412156 16.221314 28.627181 60.925809 180.919213 1785.877959